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breeden
ursulav

Weather

It was seventy degrees today.

Last week we had a hard freeze. Thursday night we are forecast to have another one.

It's an interesting fact about climate change in this state--according to the state meterology sites, you can't actually prove it mathematically. It seems very very likely, they hasten to add, since the rest of the world is certainly warming and it would be very weird to think that North Carolina was exempt from this, but our weather is historically too weird and too variable to pull any statistically signifcant trends from the data, and there aren't any ice cores to dredge data out of, so we're left going "Uh...probably?"

Basically, climate change is happening everywhere, we just aren't noticing locally because we're so erratic to begin with. No matter how you chart it, our weather graphs look like the EKG of someone having a very, very bad day.

(Apparently the only thing that's got enough data to make a neat little line on a graph is that early morning low temperatures in cities are definitely rising. I don't understand the math so I won't presume to judge one way or the other, but the state climate office suggests that has probably more to do with urbanization and heat island effects, since the rural areas aren't affected.)

I saw a butterfly today--a Sleepy Orange--and cringed, because boy, is it out of luck. Hopefully it has already laid eggs or whatever Sleepy Oranges do in fall. If not, it's got about seventy-two hours to get busy.

Pretty much every place I've lived outside the Southwest had some version of the joke "Don't like the weather? Wait five minutes!" but in North Carolina, it may be closer to true than anywhere else.

Personally, I've always thought the NC version should be more "Don't like the season? Wait five minutes!" :)

As a kid, I was always confused when people started talking about packing up their summer clothes, because what if it turned out to be 80 degrees on Christmas and you *needed* those short-sleeved shirts?

It was 90 the week before Christmas a few years ago. About the only thing you can be sure of is that it won't get cold in August, and I offer that cautiously...

From what I've read, this will be a very early and cold winter in North America. Lots of Arctic Ice already.

"Don't like the weather? Wait five minutes!"

I actually heard someone make that joke about San Diego once. (I've lived in San Diego for 15 years, and I'm pretty sure we have had something I would call weather about twice.)

wut

I mean, I guess if it's 1:55 you can 'wait five minutes' for your scheduled 2pm rainshower...

My parents had the complete opposite of that last week. Five feet of snow & sub-freezing temps during the week and rain with highs in the 60's over the weekend. Needless to say, there was some flooding.

I think a clearer understanding of what is happening

aside from warming is 'climate weirdening." A friend in OKC who keeps a passel of lizards and frogs had his dog find a baby leopard frog in the yard about a week and half ago, they'd hatched because of the warm snap. Which means anything that eats these when they normally hatch out in the spring is going to be SOL.

My friend rescued the one and put it in his frog habitat -- the hope was that it wasn't small enough to be eaten by the others it would survive. And so far, so good.

It seems very very likely, they hasten to add, since the rest of the world is certainly warming and it would be very weird to think that North Carolina was exempt from this, but our weather is historically too weird and too variable to pull any statistically signifcant trends from the data,

Hm, that's interesting. But you can quantify variance--I mean, look at any finance 101 course, it's all about quantifying risk (ie variance/standard deviation)

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I still haven't convinced my mother, a life long Coloradan, that CO doesn't GET four seasons. They get, at most, three. Upstate NY, where I am, we've managed to dodge the 7.5 FEET of snow Buffalo got and today was 65. My lilac bush is trying to bud and I keep telling it to STOP.

It's supposed to snow Wednesday.

We shall see.

As a Colorado native, I can confirm the lack of normal seasons. We used to say it as "Almost winter, Actual winter, STILL winter! and Construction Season". :P

Now I'm in Georgia, which seems more like "OMFG HOT MUGGY YUCK, Autumn, Miserable freezing rain, Allergy Season".

...is such a charming name for a butterfly, I had to go Google it. It's quite pretty. I noticed that search results turned up two different genus names.

One problem with temperatures over time is that - to have an accurate representation - you need the temp gauges to be in the same spot. But in the city, what was once a properly sited gauge in a field is now, quite often, improperly sited in an asphalt parking lot or way too close to an AC/heating unit or ... The joys of growing cities.

Nationally and internationally it gets even more amusing as the databases are "adjusted" so that what gets reported isn't the raw data but the adjusted data.

Generally weather is chaotic (aka random) so any time you get really neat straight lines the odds are high that someone's weighting the dice.

(P.S. The anonymous version of this comment was a mistake due to not logging in and please to nuke from orbit.)

A friend of mine once commented...

"Climate is what one expects, Weather is what one gets"

Northern Virginia here. Our high today was 72. On Wednesday we're supposed to get snow. My back is displeased by the weather changes.

Well here in the UK we have had some weird weather of late and a very mild warm October, but now it seems settled down to a wet cold November.

Finland reporting, we don't have snow.

Possibly it is still being used for freezing Hell over our Eurovision Song Contest win in noughties.


Florida, and I have the AC on.
The fog is rolling in like eerie ghost sheep and it's muggy and humid.

Can I just ask what kind of weather one might expect in/around Orlando in January? Me and the family are going there next year, and I'm assuming it'll be warmer than Sweden, but I've no idea by how much, or how humid it'll be.

Southeast Georgia, and we had the AC on today, too--it hit the 80s! They *say* that Thanksgiving will be cool, and it'll be starting to do that tomorrow or Wednesday--but it was supposed to rain here today.
Not a drop out of the sky. Pbbtt! Our roses are showing off, while the flowering pears (I call them "false pears") are showing off their fall colors, which I must admit are beautiful. The little stinkers^^

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Re: Except in the SF Bay Area, weather is geographical.

all of this is true.

the reason they can't wrap their heads around it is that the weather in the midwest has had a thousand-mile headstart before it gets there, and little in the way of features to break it up, such that the whole state all has the same forcast unless a weather front's currently halfway thru.

?

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